As Major League Baseball passes the mid-season break and heads towards the final third of the regular season, some teams are exceeding their pre-season expectations and some teams are underperforming.
There are several surprise teams in the middle of the playoff hunt. For example the Boston Red Sox, riddled with injuries throughout the 2012 season in which they finished dead last in the American League East, unloaded nearly a quarter-billion dollars in salary through to 2018 by sending some of their highest producing players to the Dodgers last August. Led by the resurging David Ortiz and Dustin Pedroia, the Red Sox have found the winning combination, sitting in second in the majors in hits and second place in the toughest division in baseball through the first 100 games.
Not to be overlooked are the Oakland Athletics. Despite having one of the lowest team salaries in the entire majors, the A’s shocked the baseball world with an improbable late-season run to steal the AL West division title in the final games of last year. This year it seems that they won’t need a late season streak as they currently sit atop their division and boast the fifth-lowest earned run average in the league. Led by veteran right-hander Bartolo Colon, their success is undoubtedly attributed to their pitching rotation given that the team is in the bottom third in all batting statistics.
The Toronto Blue Jays are undoubtedly the biggest disappointment through the first half of the season. The team had built unimaginable expectations for themselves after their blockbuster trade with the Miami Marlins as well as other signings made in the off-season, automatically skyrocketing them into World Series and American League favourites. However, the team sits last in the AL East with a 50–58 record. Given the quality of the other four teams in their division, the Jays are unlikely to be contending for a playoff spot in September. Another disappointment are the Los Angeles Angels, who currently sit at 49–58 and fourth in the AL West. The Angels have the seventh highest payroll in the majors thanks to the contracts of Albert Pujols and the recently signed Josh Hamilton, and are loaded with young talent and strong pitching. However they currently sit in 25th in hitting 26th in ERA and are in danger of missing the playoffs for a fourth consecutive year.
There are several teams currently on the outside of the playoff races that have the potential to make a late season surge. One of the most interesting and surprising teams are the Cleveland Indians, who sit two and a half games back of the Detroit Tigers for the AL Central lead with a record of 60–48. Playing some of their best baseball of the season and led by second baseman Jason Kipnis, the team’s offence has been their key for success as they sit third in the MLB in runs scored. What makes this team so threatening is how spread out their offence is — despite leading the team in all offensive statistics, Kipnis only has 15 home runs and 63 runs batted in, while three other players have at least 45 RBI or more. Indians manager Terry Francona has already exceeded many expectations with this roster that on paper doesn’t have many well-known players, but certainly has been utilized as a well-rounded package. Given the weakness of the rest of their AL Central rivals, expect the Indians to round up more wins and giving the Tigers a run for the division title.
The Pittsburgh Pirates and the Cincinnati Reds are comfortably occupying the two National League wild card spots, with the Arizona Diamondbacks sitting four games back. Two of these three teams are likely to make the playoffs. The AL wildcard however is a crapshoot. The Tampa Bay Rays and Baltimore Orioles currently sit in the wildcard spots, but are faced by an intimidating list of teams that are desperately trying to climb into contention. The Indians sit only one game back of the Orioles, followed by the recently struggling Texas Rangers and the New York Yankees.
The Orioles are one of the most explosive offensive teams in the majors, thanks in part to home run leader Chris Davis and centre fielder Adam Jones. The team is more than capable of producing runs and winning big games, but their juggernaut offence is completely offset by their poor defence. They have 17 blown saves so far this season, the second most in the league. The Orioles have the roster to win any ballgame, however they rely on scoring a lot of runs as early in the game as possible to avoid losing in the later innings. If their offence doesn’t show up early and often, it’s likely it won’t show up at all, making it difficult for their pitching rotation to keep games tight. With well-balanced teams breathing down their neck late in the season, the instability of the Orioles pitching makes them the team most likely to fade from the playoff race.
One of the most exciting things about baseball is the possibility that all predictions, analysis and expectations may be proved meaningless, and that everything you think you know about the teams, players, and stats could be about as useful as a winter coat in July. Teams with the highest expectations can fail to reach their goals, while teams with little to no expectations at all can exceed any preconceived probability of success. In regards to this season’s surprise teams, busts and potential sleepers, the opportunity for electrifying, unpredictable and miraculous baseball is perhaps the one sure bet heading towards the fall.