This past Sunday, a historic vote began. The people of South Sudan, in accordance with a peace deal which stopped the civil war in 2005, are holding a referendum to decide whether the region will separate from the north or not. Separation is almost certain to occur, but in the weeks leading up to the election many commentators were unsure about two things: if the vote would actually take place and, if it did, what the south would do once it separated. Since Sunday there has been sporadic violence, yet considering prior atrocities the region has faced, the voting process will be a success. This, however, will be a trying time for a people who have already endured so much.
Sudan’s history has been similar to most of Africa, only marked by more extremes. The country won independence from Egypt (which previously won theirs from Britain) in 1956. A civil war between north and south Sudan started the year before, however, and continued at various times until 2005, when a ceasefire was finally reached. The war saw two million people killed (most of whom were from the south) and an additional four million displaced. Sudan is made up of an Arab Muslim population in the north and a black Christian and animist population in the south.
An enormous hindrance to peace has been Omar al-Bashir, who took control of Sudan in a bloodless coup in 1989. Since then, he has introduced Islamic law nationally, taken control of all legislative and executive powers and, most importantly, is wanted by the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity and war crimes committed in the Darfur region of Sudan.
It came as a surprise, therefore, when al-Bashir declared that he would accept the outcome of the referendum. Former American President Jimmy Carter, who is currently observing the vote in Sudan, even said al-Bashir agreed to take on the entirety of Sudan’s debt, rather than split it with the south. If this does occur, it would not only put South Sudan on track for a better start, but also show that al-Bashir is willing to promote long-term stability.
But things are unlikely to go so smoothly. While the election began on time and is proceeding well so far, there is still the risk that the sixty per cent turnout needed for the vote to be official won’t occur. The vote lasts for a week to give extra time to allow people who live a day’s walk away to get to a polling station. If the vote is recognized, South Sudan will have only half a year to negotiate the terms of the separation with the northern government in Khartoum. Negotiations have been ongoing for years, but little headway has been made regarding currency, the border, the allocation of government property and the question of oil.
Nearly all of Sudan’s wealth comes from oil. It makes up 94 per cent of its export revenue and the majority of wells are located in the south, but most are very close to the border. Oil revenue has been split equally between north and south since 2005, but the terms of that agreement run out this year. As it stands, oil from the south is pumped to the north, but this will likely change. Without oil, either region would suffer, so renegotiating the terms of oil revenue has added importance.
More than oil will be needed to set South Sudan on the right track. According to the United Nations, 90 per cent of southern Sudanese live on less than a dollar a day, 85 per cent of adults are illiterate and 20 per cent of pregnancies result in the death of the mother. Infrastructure is sorely lacking — while things have improved over the last six years, there are still just over 100 kilometres of paved roads and few police.
South Sudan faces a myriad of difficulties. But it has accomplished much in a short time and has endured decades of bloodshed. The international community owes it to South Sudan to ensure that separation occurs peacefully and also that it is given the resources needed for a fair go. Even if al-Bashir makes good on his promises, South Sudan is lacking real leadership, making it a real risk that the experiment will fail. For all that, they must be allowed to try. They have survived worse.
. . Gauntlet Editorial Board